The Road to Kentucky Week 10 Recap

dubai

“Dubai Sky among nine late Triple Crown nominees.” – Racing headline on Brisnet.com

The Week 10 Road to Kentucky contest returned to Turfway Park for the featured Spiral Stakes.  Metaboss and Royal Son were the horses to beat on paper, as they both exited impressive prep race victories on synthetic surfaces at Golden Gate Fields and Turfway Park, respectively.  But it was the public’s fourth choice, Dubai Sky, who made it look easy at 7-1 for trainer Bill Mott.  Dubai Sky had raced exclusively on turf prior to the Spiral Stakes, but he handled to polytrack quite well from Post 12 and cruised to a relatively easy win.  It was a day of racing that appeared to favor horses racing on the outside, and stalkers and closers had the better of the race flows.  This was a much different scenario than what we saw three weeks earlier when Royal Son dominated the field in wire-to-wire fashion in the Battaglia.

The maximum score last week was 2,342 points.  That’s a low total for a twelve race card and a double point race, but it’s good news if you are hovering near the top of the leaderboard as it’s been difficult to make up ground.  Dubai Sky was worth the most contest points this week at 604, so you probably needed him for a chance at a top 5 placing.  He was worth 25.8% of the total points available.  Favorites won 5 of the 12 races, so having Dubai Sky probably gets you half way to a winning score.  I’m guessing 1,300-1,400 points will put you in the conversation for a cashable total.

My selection in the Spiral was Big Family, a shipper from Gulfstream Park who trailed the field at 53-1.  I liked him because he had been working well, had early speed and would be a giant price.  He was trying the synthetic surface for the first time, but he clearly didn’t like the Polytrack or was simply outclassed in this spot.  I had a few winners in the 5-1 range and checked in around 550 points.

This Saturday the contest track is Gulfstream Park for the featured Florida Derby.  There is also a bonus race at Fair Grounds, the Louisiana Derby. First post and contest entry deadline is 11:00 a.m. Hope to see you here! (Don’t forget Saturday is also Dubai World Cup Day with racing beginning at 7:30 a.m.)

The Oracle

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