Week 3 in Review by The Oracle

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We experienced our first off track of the young season on Sunday, June 1, and a six pack of favorites splashed into the Mystic Lake Winners Circle from seven thoroughbred races.  Personally, I prefer my six packs to come from the Chalk Pub and not be chalk horses, but that’s a video for another time.  In thoroughbred races, favorites did exceptionally well this week, winning 13 of 23 races and moving the season winning percentage of thoroughbred favorites to 42%.  For contest players stabbing at longshots (i.e. me), that’s not ideal.  Mark it zero.

 Despite the unwelcome chalk parade, there were four longshot winners this week which resulted in two IRS Pick 4 payoffs on Friday night.  The Pick 4 continues to offer good value with its 14% takeout, one of the lowest in the country.  Get involved and cash for size!

 Let’s take a look at those longshot winners from last week.

 5-30-14 Race 3 – Ragged Edge ($36.40).  This was a clm20000 turf route for 3+.  Ragged Edge was a Minnesota Bred facing open company and making his first start of the year.  He was a “horse for course” on the Canterbury turf, finishing in-the-money in 6 of 7 local turf starts including 2 wins and 3 seconds.  He was the only runner in the field with 2 wins at the distance, but his long layoff threw the bettors off the trail.  Trainer Rhone had him fit with a series of 5 panel drills, and Escobar had ridden him to previous wins.  Plenty to like at those odds…

 5-30-14 Race 4 – Chairman Crooks ($25.40).  This was an Allowance turf route for 3+.  It’s tough for me to make a case for Chairman Crooks in this race.  He has speed, and his lone turf race last year resulted in a second place finish at 4-1 after setting the pace.  Jockey Dean Butler won with him last year and was back aboard for this race.  He exits a tougher dirt sprint at Prairie Meadows.  He hadn’t been able to secure the lead in his three dirt sprints this year, but got it today and it paid off.  At 11-1 he wasn’t for me, but if you latched onto his potential early speed great handicapping!

 5-30-14 Race 9 – Royal Tramp ($26.20).  This was a Minnesota bred maiden special weight sprint for 3+.  This was another tough winner to find.  Royal Tramp chased and faded to fourth in his season debut.  He ran third twice last year from three starts.  Predicting improvement in his second start off the layoff, plus recognizing the vulnerability of the race favorite who was 0/7 and making his first start of the year were keys to victory.

 5-31-14 Race 3 – Northern Choice (33.00).  This was a clm4000 dirt route for 3+.  Not a lot of clues on this winner either.  He was getting a rider switch to Alex Canchari.  He had run improved speed figures in his last two starts, and his last was right at the par time for this level.  He had strong internal fractions in his last race at Turf Paradise.  Tough to find but a nice price if you did!

 Come out for Thursday racing this week and best of luck!

 

The Oracle

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