The Oracle Reviews Opening Weekend

Speakfromyourheart - 10000 Lakes Stakes - 05-16-14 - R06 - CBY - Inside Finish_600x300

It was feast or famine at Canterbury Park on opening weekend.  Eleven favorites found the winner’s circle from twenty-five races (44%), but there were also six double-digit odds winners which sent some Pick 3 and Pick 4 payoffs skyrocketing.  Of the nineteen Pick 3 payoffs, four were over the IRS reporting limit of $600 (it would have been five, but one particularly tough sequence paid 2/3 winners), and two of the six Pick 4 payoffs also required your signature and social security number as they paid in excess of $5,000 for a 50-cent wager.  You can’t win that kind of money without owning up! 

Let’s take a closer look at those longshot winners from the first three racing days: 

5-16-14 Race 2 – Susanita ($52.20).  This was a maiden claiming sprint race for 3yo fillies.  Susanita had raced 15 days earlier at Prairie Meadows where she had shown strong early speed in a higher-rated maiden claiming race but faded badly at 29-1.  She was getting a trainer switch from Brock to Canchari, won the early pace battle from post 2 and kicked clear at the top of the stretch, lasting for the win.  Her main asset was sharp early speed but her 0/10 record with only one second had the public looking elsewhere. 

5-16-14 Race 5 – Pennant Fever ($32.80).  This was a Minnesota-bred maiden special weight sprint for 3+.  Pennant Fever had run twice at Canterbury last summer as a 2-year old, showing brief speed and fading.  He was bet down to 7/2 in his debut last year.  Trained by Vic Hanson and ridden by Eikleberry, he showed a strong workout at Remington Park four weeks earlier, 4f in 48.1 followed by a slower maintenance drill.  He went straight to the lead and sailed wire to wire. 

5-16-14 Race 6 – Speakfromyourheart ($26.60).  This was the 10,000 Lakes Stakes sprint for Minnesota-bred 3+.  Trainer Vic Hanson struck in back to back races with layoff horses, this time with a closer who hadn’t run in 6 months.  Speakfromyourheart also showed a sharp 4f workout at Remington Park 14 days earlier, 4f in 47.4.  And despite the 4-horse field, Speakfromyourheart was 12-1 due to the overwhelming support at the windows for Heliskier, who was sent off at odds of 1/9.  When Heliskier and Bourbon County hooked up in a protracted pace battle, it set things up for Speakfromyourheart to rally from off the pace and prevail by a nose at the wire. 

5-16-14 Race 7 – Slippery Ice (28.80).  This was a Minnesota-bred maiden special weight sprint for 3+.  Slippery Ice was a first time starter trained by Shane Miller.  Not many clues to land on this runner other than a sharp 3f workout 5 days before the race, and the fact that none of the experienced runners had approached running the par time for this level.  The race was ripe for an upset and Slippery Ice broke to the lead and never looked back with Delorme aboard. 

5-18-14 Race 3 – Kvell a Little (33.20).  This was a clm4000 sprint for f&m 3+.  Kvell a Little was the second longshot winner this meet getting a trainer switch from Brock to Canchari.  This filly had run her previous two races at Fonner Park, winning both races easily in gate to wire fashion in 4 furlong races.  In her start 2 back she was 57-1 and cruised by 3.5 lengths!  She dominated this race as well, breaking alertly from the rail and winning by 9 lengths at 15-1.  Both Canchari longshots have been ridden by Patrick Canchari.

5-18-14 Race 4 – Affirmed Cure (27.40).  This was an Allowance route for 3+.  Affirmed Cure was last seen on the turf at Canterbury Park last summer.  Trained by Virginia Peters, he broke his maiden over a sloppy track last year in his most recent dirt race, but had been on the turf his last 6 races of last year.  His speed figures had improved in his turf races, and he had even pulled a 42-1 shocker on the lawn last June.  Most handicappers would view this race as a prep for turf racing this summer and perhaps it was, but a 5 furlong workout from 14 days earlier in 1:02.2 had him fit enough to spring the upset from off the pace.

Keep looking for patterns with longshot winners and best of luck this weekend!

 The Oracle

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