I Been In The Right Place But It Must Have Been The Wrong Time


A severe rain storm swept through New Orleans on Friday, causing the cancellation of racing at Fair Grounds Race Course.  But the sun was out on Saturday for the 13 race Fair Grounds card featuring the Louisiana Derby.  Unfortunately, 5 of the 6 scheduled turf races had to be moved to the main track due to wet turf conditions, causing some short fields along the way.

The Louisiana Derby was won easily by Vicars in Trouble (3-1), a Louisiana bred trained by Michael Maker and ridden by Rosie Napravnik.  He sped to the front and proved to be much the best as he secured his 3rd win from 5 career starts.  He is sired by Into Mischief and doesn’t have a classic pedigree for 1 ¼ miles in my opinion, but he can flat-out run.  Sometimes horses simply outrun their pedigrees (Holy Bull comes to mind) and he looks like a live horse heading to the Kentucky Derby.  He is owned by the Ramsey’s, and with Keeneland opening next week you can expect to see them in the winner’s circle a lot over the coming month.

The other bonus race was the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park, and trainer Todd Pletcher won it with Constitution (3-1) with Castellano aboard in a tight finish over Wildcat Red and General a Rod.  Favored Cairo Prince was a disappointing fourth.  If Constitution runs in the Kentucky Derby, it will be with only three career starts (all wins) and no starts at age 2.  Those are tough obstacles to overcome for a young horse.

The maximum score this week was 3,231 points.  It was mostly low priced winners once again, but there was a 20-1 winner in the mix as well as a 7-1 and 8-1 winner in back to back races.  I checked in at 994 points this week which is certainly better than I had been doing in previous weeks.  I had the 7-1 winner Skyring on the turf, and found a 36-1 place horse (Another Pinot) as well.  My bonus selections were not good, however, as I really stabbed with Louies Flower (9th at 47-1) in the Louisiana Derby and went with Spot (7th at 10-1) in the Florida Derby.  Neither horse made any impact.  The winning score should be between 1,900-2,000 points this week and finding that 20-1 winner would be a big help in achieving that number.  Good luck if you approached 2,000 points this week!

With the Kentucky Derby just 5 weeks away, here are my top 5 Derby contenders at this point.  Feel free to share your list in the comments section.

Candy Boy
California Chrome
Vicars in Trouble

First alternate: Bayern


Next week the contest track is Aqueduct and the bonus race is the Wood Memorial featuring Samraat and Uncle Sigh.  There is also a bonus race at Santa Anita, the Santa Anita Derby, featuring my top two Derby contenders Candy Boy and California Chrome.  Hope to see you here!

The Oracle



  1. My top 10 Derby contenders: California Chrome, Tapiture, Constitution, Wildcat Red, Candy Boy, Intense Holiday, Chitu, General a Rod, Samraat. Fractions for Toast of New York were crazy in Dubai but word is he’s not coming for the Derby. Points wasted.

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