July 3rd Racing Preview

The five-day Independence Day racing week kicks off on Tuesday, July 3rd with a special 4PM Post Time. The day features some great racing including one quarter horse race (the Great Lakes Stakes) followed by 10 thoroughbred races (including the Blair’s Cove Stakes and the HBPA Mile Stakes).

Two Pick 4s carrying a $.50 minimum wager – one on races 2-5 and another on races 7 through 10 – are sure to grab the attention of punters across North America. The late pick 4 on races 7-10 is comprised four turf races. Both stakes races are included in the All-Turf Pick 4 as well as a $30,000 Allowance Turf Sprint and a field of 11 claimers going 7 and 1/2 furlongs over the lawn.

Pick 4s at Canterbury Park always feature the lowest takeout in North America at just 14%. Our Pick 3s also feature 14% takeout every racing day.

For those of you that may not be overly familiar with racing at Canterbury Park, Track Announcer Paul Allen gives you a short overview:

If you are specifically looking for analysis of our All-Turf Pick 4, Track Analyst Angela Hermann has you covered. Here, she provides some insight – as well as a ticket – that will help you navigate this wagering endeavor:

Other July 3rd Canterbury Park Racing Notes

  • All of Canterbury’s races are slated to be shown live on TVG.
  • Derby Wars is running a free contest that features Canterbury Park’s races.
  • The Daily Racing Form will be featuring Canterbury Park’s races on their website throughout the day.

Finally, for a more complete look at Canterbury Park’s statistics and trends, we turn to Canterbury Park’s resident statistician, The Oracle. A longtime Minnesota racing fan that has handicapped Canterbury’s races religiously for more than 20 years – The Oracle regularly writes about handicapping and statistical trends in Canterbury’s races for Canterbury Live.

The Track Bias

When temperatures soar into the nineties, the main track tends to favor early speed more strongly than normal. Horses that clear off on the early lead are extremely difficult to run down. Last week was no exception as 11 of 17 sprint races were won in wire to wire fashion, and 5 of 7 route winners secured the early lead by the first call. The same principle doesn’t hold on the turf, as all five winners last week rallied from off the pace. No huge prices in those front running winners, although one speedball did pay $11.00 for the win.

Expect more of the upcoming days of racing. Temperatures in the mid-nineties are forecast over the next several days.

Favorites

Favorites are continuing to perform very strongly this year, currently winning at a 48% rate for all thoroughbred races. In fact, a $2 win wager on all thoroughbred favorites to date would have cost $394 and returned $433, a profit of nearly $40 so far. It would certainly be a unique situation if the favorite could generate a flat bet profit over the course of the entire meet.

Here is a further breakdown of how favorites are doing in certain categories and sub-categories. This information can be valuable when constructing horizontal wagers. It can help isolate potential singles as well as target races with vulnerable favorites. Remember, the larger the sample size the more reliable the data will carry forward in a meaningful way.

 Category  Favorite Win %  Sample Size
All Races 48% 94/197
All Sprints 52% 65/126
Sprints – Alw/Stk 32% 9/28
Sprints – Clm 54% 29/54
Sprints – Msw 60% 12/20
Sprints – Mcl 63% 15/24
2-5 Furlongs 58% 7/12
5.5 Furlongs 53% 21/40
6 Furlongs 47% 31/66
6.5 Furlongs 75% 6/8
All Routes 45% 19/42
Routes – Alw/Stk 60% 3/5
Routes – Clm 43% 12/28
Routes – Msw 50% 2/4
Routes – Mcl 40% 2/5
1 Mile & 1 Mile 70 42% 15/36
1 Mile & 1/16 67% 4/6
All Turf 34% 10/29
Turf – Alw/Stk 36% 4/11
Turf – Clm 27% 4/15
Turf – Msw 50% 1/2
Turf – Mcl 100% 1/1
5 Furlongs 100% 1/1
7.5 Furlongs 27% 3/11
1 Mile 45% 5/11
1 Mile & 1/16 17% 1/6


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